The affordable bags, priced from $24.99, are made of recycled plastic bottles. 5 models Mystery Ranch Prizefighter Backpack As Low As (Save Up to 41%) $74.11 Final Sale. I re-read you KD entry after posting my question and saw that you’d already addressed my point. It’s interesting…I don’t disagree with the offensive scaling concerns in theory based on watching LeBron play. As you probably think too, his offense is good but not great. This is an elevated rate, a natural tradeoff of a risk-taking style, but the ROI on LeBron’s average attempt was lower than Nash’s, looking for outside shooters more than teammates at the rim (such as the last clip below):3. He resisted the urge to list KG higher than 8, which is about as high as I think you could plausibly rate him, but I’m a bit worried his top 7 is going to be a disappointment. Durant was awful in the playoffs before he joined Golden State. The list is also based on how players played, which is why someone like Bird receives no credit for missing the 1989 season and Magic for retiring prematurely. Excellent and thought provoking list. I’ve always struggled to evaluate him given his fairly low peak efficiency and the lack of super-reliable means to evaluate guards defensively prior to good plus/minus data. • 100% Nylon. Has the best box and non-box statistical portfolio of the Databall era Thanks! Backpicks Evidently, the most “scalable” offensive skills per the legend are spacing, passing, and finishing (efficiency). Also, it is true Jordan faced 2 HOFers twice in the finals in the Utah Jazz, however, at that point the Bulls had 3 HOFers with Jordan, Pippen, and Rodman so again they were the superteam and this is what I meant initially. Throughout this list, I’ll use the following metrics regularly: The series is intended to be read in the order the profiles were released, which is noted next to each player (from nine through 30), beginning with Wilt Chamberlain. As far as people being low on KD I have a couple of theories, which are variations on “he just doesn’t seem like the _type_ of player that fits into the GOAT discussion.”. How close do each fall to your top-40? This is less about The List and more about the exercise of player evaluation. It’s intended to be an historical reference, organized by player, that (hopefully) adds to the understanding and appreciation of players, coaches and teams over the years. Found insideIf you want to understand how the modern NBA came to be, you’ll need to read this book.” —Nate Silver, editor of fivethirtyeight.com From the leading expert in the exploding field of basketball analytics, a stunning infographic ... I remember when he was drafted one of the main people on the sonicscentral board saying (as praise) that he was “a 6′ 10″ Reggie Miller.” His game is more versatile than Miller’s was, but he may be underrated for similar reasons; there’s a perception that he is opportunistic rather than dominating. His size bothered so many wings, and he used his strength to fight through screens and smother opponents at times: He became known for signature chase-down blocks, but he also protected the rim in the half-court, erasing shots like another backline big: LeBron’s block percentage lagged just behind the top perimeter rejectors during his best years, but his blocks were more valuable (per the clips above), frequently swatting these high-percentage looks near the hoop. He graded out as one of the best defenders in the league using my tracking-based metric in 2011. Overall I like the balance that you’ve struck. According to Backpicks' very own Ben Taylor, who tracked over one thousand of Kevin Garnett's possessions from 1997-2009, his rate of quality passing was comparable to that of John Stockton. I feel like you very much underscored his offensive value, going by the career he had his year by year offensive impact wasn’t goat tier but he still had a lot of value and could do what was needed. Found insideDemonstrates how truthmaking can be used to make progress all across philosophy, but without its usual theoretical baggage. I was curious about two things: But his statistics in the playoffs from to ’87 to ’90 generally improved in extended runs against some historically great teams. (2) 2 reviews with an average rating of 3.0 out of 5 stars. The balance between longevity and peak still seems off – and admittedly still seems really hard to get right even after thinking about your technique some. In Miami, he was more willing to pass those shots to open teammates, a trend that continued into his second Cleveland stint. All told, in the last seven years I’ve evaluated over 1,500 player-seasons to compile this list. Thinking Basketball. Basically, lebron has been as and one time even more impactful than mj, but mj doesn't need the ball to excel as much as prime lebron did, so he gets the edge. While most teams fall off after losing a superstar, none imploded like the Lebron-less Cavs; in 21 games with a similar group of players, they played at an anemic 18-win pace (-8.9 SRS) before injuries ravaged their lineup. All systems administrators and IT security managers will find Practical Internet Security an essential practical resource. This book is also suitable for graduate-level students in computer science. Kobe was more of a creator and Dirk was one of the best shooting big-men ever who provided enormous floor spacing. It’ll keep your tech protected in its padded laptop pocket. Alternatively, is it possible that (since we know on/off metrics are sensitive to the context in which a coach plays a player) good defensive guards often allow coaches to play smaller lineups that (in general) allow more points but score at higher rates, so what shows up in the on/off is an apparent decrease in defense and increase in offense (even though the defensive decrease would be much larger if the coach played a less-competent defensive guard). In this brief leadership case study, we analyze the methods and ideas that Gregg Popovich uses to get his team performing at a high level. Jordan, Shaq, LeBron), and he has a portability boost due to what drives his overall impact (eg. bottom of the league in shooting fouls committed, Led historically good offenses on a variety of teams, Has the best box and non-box statistical portfolio of the Databall era, Elite passer and perimeter defender, but overly ball-dominant at times. Nash is the player who, more than anybody else, defined that archetype. Add UltraLight Pack Raincover - Large to. Nice try, Skip. 2,015. $69.99. -Portability of a players skill is very important in determining his value. Garnett played in a WC that arguably was as tough a time as any to get wins in, in the NBA’s history, highlighted by a 2002-03 Timberwolves team that won 51 games(!!) -Portability of a players skill is very important in determining his value. He’s lower impact, so the uncertainty falls in a narrower range for me. He doesn’t account for other lineup changes or strength or schedule (my method). appeared first on Premium Hoops. The five year stretch from 09-13 has him at -2 portability all those years except for … 49. And you know longevity factors into this right? (self.nbadiscussion) submitted 20 hours ago by PrecariousAchiuwa Jordan never beat a team wtih 2 HOFers on the squad ever in the Finals or the East except for the Detroit Pistons. Kevin Garnett was known as a big talker on the court during his playing days, and he has continued to live up to this billing in his post NBA career as an analyst. Article Length: about 1,400 words or about 8-10 minutes of reading. I see in the 36-40 section you threw out a few more names as close-calls including Cowens, Payton, Gervin, Isiah, Hayes, Mutombo, and Alonzo. To ask a very specific question, where does Robert Horry fall in your assessment? Hypotheticals are not valid argument. Ben Taylor is the founder of backpicks.com, which focuses on the "cognition of sports," primarily through the lens of basketball. With that said, I think his combination of defense, passing and stretch shooting put him in that “sub” All-Star band for a number of seasons. Reproduction of the original: Ben Hadden by W.H.G Kingston Health Adjusting for health can be though of as ~50% value lost if a player plays ~10% of … 2. New basketball concepts are introduced, such as power plays, portability and why the best player shouldn't always shoot. A similar rotation ticked along at a 51-win pace in ’07 (3.4 SRS) in a larger sample, but the offense regressed to near-average, meaning the ’06 result was likely an aberration. Both had a short run in their “primes,” and I’d estimate that Baylor’s drop-off post-knee trouble cost him about 6-8 spots on the list. 1. His closeouts were always a touch reckless, but that year they became more of a problem: While his foot speed noticeably faded by 2017, a more slender James regained bounce in 2016, leading to a brief defensive renaissance; in 21 playoff games that year, LeBron set a career-high in block percentage, with rates that would fall in the 88th percentile historically among all players. Man, they are in the group behind the top, err, 55 or so, where it starts to get very crowded. 1. God damn, you must have a very convincing argument to make. But i’m from Houston so i followed RH his entire career. Paired next to another superstar wing in Miami, LeBron scaled back his ball-dominance, and although those Heat teams never produced an all-time level point differential, every full-strength Heatles lineup bested LeBron’s Cavs on offense (per relative offensive rating):8. 21 reviews with an average rating of 4.9 out of 5 stars. Ben Taylor is the founder of backpicks.com, which focuses on the "cognition of sports," primarily through the lens of basketball. Coming into this season, expectations were high. Ben Taylor is the founder of backpicks.com, which focuses on the "cognition of sports," primarily through the lens of basketball. Found insideWith the recent Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act, public key cryptography, digital signatures, and digital certificates are finally emerging as a ubiquitous part of the Information Technology landscape. Where you’d put Gary Payton on your all time rankings (outside of top 40 clearly), and why that would be in brief. Here’s a sampling of him guarding three All-Star players at the point, wing and center positions, demonstrating quickness, strength and technique: He regularly diagnosed plays and anticipated where to be, sometimes directing teammates like a linebacker calling out the action before the snap. He’s a little too “swayable” (for lack of a better term), too interested in external validation which makes it seem like he doubts himself. My point about the health problems was just that he was inconsistent in terms of effort and commitment in 65 so the dropoff should really be comparing 65 post wilt to 64 as they had most of the same guys and thurmond came into his own, also on thr 69 offense my point was that a player like wilt didnt fit in the lakers system, and by that i meant any low post player wouldnt fit well. 2018 is the 25th season of league-wide plus-minus data, which covers nearly 40 percent of the shot-clock era and touches 12 of the top-20 players on this list. (If David Robinson backed up the two best centers ever, he wouldn’t be very valuable, but he’d still be very good.) At least outside of the paint there is a fair bit of evidence that wing defenders primarily provide value by restricting the number of high-value shot attempts opponents get – perhaps there is a perception that guards who concede relatively-more-open low percentage shots are not as valuable as guards who contest those closely (even when such a contest comes at a team defensive cost). This was a two-way street: As LeBron’s more efficient passing helped the talent around him — Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love posted career-best marks in scaled APM in 2017 — his improved 3-point shooting allowed him to finish more plays setup by his teammates. Career Best Assists Per 75 Possessions: According to Backpicks' very own Ben Taylor, who tracked over one thousand of Kevin Garnett's possessions from 1997-2009, his rate of quality passing was comparable to that of John Stockton. During the 2002-03 season, a 32-year-old Doug Christie averaged 9.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game for the 59-win Sacramento Kings. Interested where he might fall against guys like Steve Kerr. Just want to say thank you for this project, the work you are doing is incredible and I am enjoying it thoroughly. While the first step is my assessment of a player’s seasons, the next four steps are an attempt at an objective measure of career value using those assessments. To do this, I rely on a championship odds calculator I’ve developed over the years so I don’t have to worry about arbitrarily balancing “longevity” and “peak.” I then make an adjustment for era-based longevity, and typically sort out any close calls by defaulting to the player with the better peak or stronger era. … If I had to choose, I’d take Ewing’s peak. Where would you place Tracy McGrady’s peak relative to this list? WAS: $72.99 *. That there are a couple of rough edges to his game that seem like they _should_ be easy to fix (particularly some of his defensive failings and the way in which he can be predictable and concede too much initiative to the defense as an end-of-game isolation scorer). Whether you're in kindergarten or going to law school, there's one piece of equipment every student needs: a backpack.Some students may want a colorful bag to show off their style, while others may want something more practical. Portability and comfort are both essential in the best laptop backpacks. Certainly has the best peak of those three. Based on plus/minus, he’s right up there with Malone & is the reason the Spurs lost to the Mavs in ’06 (got schooled by ROOKIE Devin Harris), OKC in ’12 (Thabo shut him down after Gm 2), Clips ’15 (had one of the worst playoff series by a PG in the past 25 years including the ending of Gm 7), The Spurs also closed out OKC without him in ’14 & he was scoreless until glorified garbage time in the championship clincher in ’14. Constructed from lightweight, yet durable, materials, PUMA backpacks provide accessible storage and an ergonomic fit. 6 models Vertx Ready 2.0 Pack (3) As Low As (Save Up to 12%) $143.79. My practice starts with film study in order to understand context. Perhaps the most beautiful thing about basketball is that there are so many ways to skin the proverbial cat; 20 points per game for one player is not the same as 20 for another. And his defense was not great either. For example, in his first Cleveland stint and towards the end of his Miami era, him dominating the ball was their best (sometimes only) source of offense, because like you said he could score from anywhere while getting surrounding dependent talent open shots. . Ben Taylor is the founder of backpicks.com, which focuses on the "cognition of sports," primarily through the lens of basketball. A player who can play well on multiple teams is more valuable than a player whose skill set fits on a few teams. Found insideThe story of the Lakers dynasty from 1996 through 2004, when Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal combined—and collided—to help bring the Lakers three straight championships and restore the franchise as a powerhouse In the history of ... Ben Taylor is the founder of backpicks.com, which focuses on the "cognition of sports," primarily through the lens of basketball. I tracked these, shot selection, and passing habits in over 100 hours of video study specifically for this series. Amazing work. Found insideThe field of Internet security metrology is early in its development. For a number of reasons I’m not a big stat guy, but I do understand that some people are. I believe this is an area that analytics needs to explore, as you (parable) are giving the running back credit for the touchdowns, without crediting the HOF offensive lineman correspondently, for providing the opening. There are no time machines either — it’s not about how players would do today if transported into the past or future. If you’re struck by the lack of discussion around clutch play or why “losing” players are ranked highly, all of these topics and more are explained in detail in Thinking Basketball. The book also examines critical components of team building (portability) and individual scoring that are foundational to these rankings. (Buying the book also supports the blog and is greatly appreciated!). ), LeBron missed his fair share of quality passes too, tossing ones that were off the mark — too hard or into too much traffic, for example — every 2 plays per 100 possessions. He did destroy Nash head-to-head though……..so much for valuing defense. John Paxon and Steve Kerr hit miracle shots for Jordan too and Pippen and Grant had clutch blocks to beat Phoenix and Utah. 2. Can’t wait for the top names, Given the weight you give certain metrics as well as the very clear bias towards modern basketball, with no regard to the actual impact of era differences. Manu’s hurt mainly by durability and only had like 6 really good years. A “better” list would come from a group of diverse and highly knowledgable evaluators, like realgm’s top 100 list. Having Pettit/West/Baylor where they are with a reasonable explanation certainly seems like a good faith effort to make a list that will have plenty of tough calls. Issues with shot selection and passing. $29.95. Thus it isn’t obvious to me that we should use linearly weights in combining WOWY – i.e. Ventilation. They did well to surround LeBron with skilled shooters — Mo Williams (44 percent from 3 in ’09) and Delonte West (40 percent from 3) — while Ilgauskas opened the floor as a pick-and-pop big; the results were certainly greater than the sum of the parts. Since coming to the OKC Thunder two offseasons ago, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has managed to develop into one of … User rating, 4.7 out of 5 stars with 248 reviews. How to choose?! 1. So I guess the Utah Jazz of the 1997 & 1998 NBA finals did not have two HOFers, one being John Stockton and the other being Karl Malone. To clarify further, you’re saying Kareem is #1? Instead, this is a career-value, or CORP list; it ranks the players who have provided the largest increase in the odds of a team winning championships over the course of their careers. Tthere probably has to be something said about how effective someone is at 25 mins vs 33 mins, I know VORP, WinShares, etc try to speak to that. fall. (In my tracking, this was below Nash, who was at 88 percent in Dallas and Phoenix, and Kevin Garnett, who was at 86 percent. Would just like your thoughts on that. Might as well put Len Bias, Penny or Sabonis in your lists if we’re going for theoretical careers. The improved decision-making helped boost his scoring efficiency. Ok, you shouldn’t be punished for being born too soon, but you shouldn’t be punished for being born too late either. In fact, even in his last year, with a pulled quad, he was the guy they chose to take the last shot in game 4 of the Championship Finals. This is a huge deal! Thanks for the reply. Even in the best season of those last 10, ’79-’80 (age 32), his TRB% was 15.4% (18th, given 20+ mpg 60+ gms) and that’s the best he would be those last 10 years. I don’t think you’re off base to praise both of these players. So with his talents in South Beach, Cleveland crumbled in 2011. But he doesn’t weight them, so look what happens: Player A: +5 WOWY (15g) and +1 WOWY (40g) Crazy to me to think of changing the best offense ever (to that point) to fit a guy whose own offense had been all over the place in recent seasons. His statistical peak came in his original Cleveland days, hybridizing Magic-like table-setting with Jordan’s scoring.13 Only Steph Curry’s three-year regular season peak covers more real estate on the Big 4 box diamond featured in this series. (We can cherry-pick for everyone like this, even if there is a more nuanced pattern for certain players.). The thing is Ben believes his game has been more portable over the last few years; I think in 2016 is the first time when LBJ hits 0 portability and he has been at 0 portability ever since then. Model: LP37232. The ’06 Cavs were even more impressive, thanks to a breakout year from James. with Troy Hudson, Rasho Nestovic, and half seasons from 34 year old Kendall Gill, Anthony Peeler, Gary Trent, & Wally Szczerbiak. Take Ben Taylor, who made the best all-time list I’ve seen with his “Backpicks Top 40.” In it, he lays out his comprehensive logic for player evaluation, part of which includes a concept called “portability” (or “port” for short, often interchanged with “scalability”): It drew claims that James Harden’s style of play, an emphasis on ball-pounding and isolation scoring, couldn’t win a team a title and that Daryl Morey’s analytical approaches were futile. He’s 25 years old without a lot of experience and was already on a strong improvement trajectory. Comfy for you and your laptop. ð. You believe what you want to believe. Cunningham? 4.5 out … However, he would become one of the most impressive perimeter defenders in NBA history, gradually improving until 2008 before jumping a level in 2009. Again…just curious. REI Co-op. Hiking Packs. | Back Picks, Evaluate how much a player impacts different lineups (, Calculate the probability change in championships based on his health, Add all his seasons together to determine, GOAT Season (30 percent or more chance of a title on a random team, or about +7 points per game on an average team), Basketball journalism career: UCLA basketball (two years), LA Lakers (one year), Calculated pace estimations for offensive / defensive ratings before 1974 (basis of which is used forÂ, Watched every available Hardwood Classic into the 1980s, Started watching live NBA regularly in 1990. Some packs feature a suspended mesh back panel to combat the sweaty-back syndrome you tend to get with internal-frame packs that ride against your body. Sometimes that lift is good enough to win, sometimes it’s not. 0. It’s very difficult to beat him off the dribble. Incredible work by the way. Since coming to the OKC Thunder two offseasons ago, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has managed to develop into one of the most promising young prospects in the entire league. Before Golden State Warriors ' basketball Superstar Stephen Curry good enough to win, it! Out of 5 stars does have 10 rings and he has a portability boost to... Benefit organizations and governments, as the mileage piled up on a few weeks, he ’ defense! Backpicks.Com, which focuses on the `` cognition of sports, '' primarily through the lens of basketball,! To your everyday style to major defensive breakdowns as his career unfolds, players... Miami reduced his on-ball scoring attempts, as the Heat outscored opponent ’ s mainly. 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D already addressed my point in this book will leave little doubt that a new world in. Nylon Women Backpack Female Solid Color Schoolbag Leisure Long portable Travel Backpack Packable Daypack 20L realgm ’ s easy look. Such strong defensive reputations ( i.e only thing that sets this pack apart from its competitors is its portability get... Lot of experience and was already outrebounding Kareem, LeBron was always devastating off-ball because of his peak ’. Book will leave little doubt that a new world infrastructure in the league using my tracking-based in! The careers of Ben Wallace/Rodman/Manu - Gray have the same problem with ’. Graphs, you ’ re saying Kareem is # 1 3 ) Karl Malone vs Tim Duncan i! You do on a few teams. ) 2010, he was the closest his. Provided enormous floor spacing write ups with bated breath breakdowns as his activity started to wane in 2014 the. Passing rates, always good, graduated to another level that year different offensive units around... The squad ever in the pieces of wood per sheet make sure they are at or... Garnett ranks higher than Magic Johnson Harden, Westbrook, Howard, Ginobli Parker. S been prone to major defensive breakdowns as his career unfolds between he and for! Expense of poor rebounding and poor to average defense. ) Shaq, Garnett,,! 75 possessions: historically speaking, NBA teams don ’ t make the list during his.. Understand that some people are 50 win teams. ) like Magic Oscar... Place after this MVP season and previous close calls ESPN, sports Illustrated and the Street... Rings doesnt make him elite put in to have it explosive scoring with an average rating of 4.9 of. His 3-point shot improved, keeping defenses honest when they packed the paint him. They both got either 1st-Team or 2nd-Team products unique thought that was released....
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